Tuesday, 18 December 2012

Anyone out there good at statistics?

From stats 31 May 2012

...Scotland’s population reached its highest ever total last year.

Statistics published today by the National Records of Scotland show that the estimated population of Scotland was 5,254,800 in mid-2011, the highest ever.

The figures, based on 2001 Census data, show a rise of 32,700 people on the previous year’s total.

'The population of Scotland on Census Day 2011 was estimated to be 5,295,000. This is a rise of 233,000 on the previous census in 2001 and represents the fastest growth rate between two censuses in the last century. Scotland's population in 2011 was just over half a million (11%) higher than in 1911.'

From the Census Bulletin:

"The latest census in Scotland took place on 27 March 2011."

"The 2011 Census achieved an overall response rate of 94 per cent of the usually resident population of Scotland. The population estimate for Scotland of 5.3 million is estimated with 95 per cent confidence to be accurate to within +/- 23,000 (0.44 per cent). Further information on response rates and associated confidence intervals is included at Appendices 4 and 5."

'Mid-Year Population Estimates
10. The mid-year estimates are an annual series of population estimates. They are on a consistent basis and, accordingly, population change over time should be measured through the mid-year estimates. Up to 1971, the census statistics are the mid-year estimates for the relevant census years. In recent years, it has become acknowledged that the census may not include every person and hence subsequent mid-year estimates, while based on the census, have incorporated adjustments to the census. Thus, in particular, the mid-year estimates for 1991 differ from the census statistics to allow for estimated census under-enumeration. In 1991, this amounted to an estimated 85,000 people. Accordingly, the information presented in this bulletin for 1991 are the mid-year estimates rather than the census estimates.
11. NRS publishes annual mid-year population estimates for the population at 30 June each year. The unrounded 2011 Census population estimates to be published in Release 1C will be used to rebase the 2011 mid-year population estimates. These are scheduled for release in June/July 2013. Following this, the mid-year population estimates for 2002-2010 will also be re-based using the 2011 Census; the re-based mid-year population estimates will be published in October/ November 2013. Reports explaining the difference between the 2011 Census based population estimates and the rolled-forward mid-year population estimates based on the 2001 Census will be published along with these releases.
12. When the rebased mid-year estimates for 2011 become available, it will be recommended that population change between 2001 and 2011 is addressed through the mid-year estimates. In the interim, the adjustments made to the 2001 and 2011 Censuses for under-enumeration, mean that population changes in the range of population characteristics as recorded in the census can be examined through comparison of the 2001 and 2011 Censuses.'
Can anyone out there put this simply?

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