The release of a Highland Council Briefing Note 52 - Population Projections to 2035 - recently with the attendant press publicity made me wonder how the data processing for last years census was progressing.
I came across this item:
Extract from the Prospectus note:
This prospectus is an active document and will be updated as more information becomes available and arrangements are confirmed. A summary of changes to previous versions will be provided with each new update. To register for email notifications of updates to the prospectus, or to discuss any aspect of our plans for release of Scotland’s 2011 Census results, contact us at email@example.com.
The www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk website provides further background to Scotland’s census, including a wide range of frequently asked questions about the arrangements for taking the census, what questions households were asked and why. NRS will continue to use the Scotland’s Census website to promote and inform the public in the lead up to the release of 2011 Census outputs.
...The census has long been the benchmark for capturing a comprehensive, consolidated and accurate snapshot of the population. However, the traditional 10-yearly census cycle means that the accuracy of the data and information derived from the census baseline, such as annual population and housing estimates, can degrade over the intercensal period.
...Due to the breadth and depth of the 2011 Census results, the statistics on the main resident population base (usual residents) will be published in tabular format across four release phases.
First release: December 2012 – Population estimates by five year age bands and sex, and estimates of number of households for Scotland and council areas. (Scotland level population estimates by single year of age and sex will be issued as supplementary data after the first release.)
Second release: from early Spring 2013 – Key and Quick statistics; Census Profiles; Headcounts and Geography products.
Third release: from early Summer 2013 – Local Characteristics.
Fourth release: from early Autumn 2013 – Detailed Characteristics.
The Aforementioned 'Briefing Note 52' sets out that;
The operative word there being 'If'. Figure 2 (on page 3 of the Briefing note) shows historic (and projected) population change since 1951. Given that the note accompanying the graph states that the rate of growth is expected to be similar to most of the post war period, then a very crude attempt at drawing a 'best straight line' through six decades worth of points gives a 2035 population of a little more than 240, 000. Of course, if we continued the line on the graph representing the steepest rate of growth from '81 to '91 then we would see an increase in population in excess of 270,000. It all depends on the economic conditions.