Well yes, we really need to do something extraordinary. Why? Faced with statistics like this, what would you do?
During the past decade the population of Highland has become older –
particularly those over 75 - despite success in attracting inward migrants and
overall growth. All of the evidence points to a continuation of this process – with
areas such as Sutherland and Wester Ross particularly affected – which has
implications for all aspects of service delivery.
...a one-size fits-all approach to policies for service delivery is
unlikely to be successful.
The large numbers of migrant workers from the A8 Accession States – currently
believed to form a stable population – occupy mainly private sector rented
accommodation. The demand may have been met by buy-to-rent, but there are
implications for the housing market if the population continues to grow (in a time
of poor mortgage availability) or if a move elsewhere or return home becomes
economically attractive.
Lenders have tightened their landing criteria which presents greatest challenge for
young, 1st time buyers – they typically needed a deposit of 25% in early 2009 (equal
to around £26k) – a year earlier this would have been 12%, around £14k. Income
multipliers have fallen. Some commentators hoped that Scotland would be less
affected as Scottish borrowers typically borrow less relative to their incomes and
mortgage interest payments account for less of their income as house prices were
on average lower than elsewhere in the UK.
Parts of Highland are fragile – in danger of decline – and small housing
developments in these areas can make a real difference.
There are fewer housing choices for people on low incomes in Highland particularly
those living in rural areas. In 2009, social rented housing made up around 18% of
Highland’s housing stock. This is far lower than the Scottish average of around 25%.
The availability of social rented housing varies across Highland. Social rented
housing is most prevalent in East Ross (28%, 2,730 houses); Caithness (28%, 2,930
houses) and Lochaber (22%, 2130 houses). Inverness, Skye & Lochalsh, Nairn and
Sutherland, Badenoch & Strathspey and Mid Ross all have similar proportions in the
range 14% -16% of the housing stock. West Ross has proportionally less – only 10%
(511 houses)28.
The main industry within Highland is the public sector which saw a rise in the
percentage of employees from 25.0% in 1998 to 31.9% in 2007 (an increase of
12,500 jobs, just over half in health and social work and around a third in education).
Other growth areas were banking finance and insurance (+5,400 jobs) distribution
hotels and restaurants (+2,700 jobs) transport and communications (+1,200 jobs)
and construction (+1,000 jobs). The sectors which saw a decline were energy and
water (-1,800 jobs) manufacturing (-600 jobs) and agriculture and fishing (-400 jobs).
Household incomes in Highland are slightly below the Scottish average this is
influenced by dependence on employment sectors which often have low rates of
pay, seasonal employment and a high proportion of part time working.
The Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings shows that in 2008 the median income
for all jobs in Highland (both full and part time) was £18,200; 94% of the Scottish
median (£19,500) and 90% of the UK median (£20,200). The Survey shows that the
gap between Highland and Scotland median incomes has narrowed by three
percentage points over the last decade whereas the mean gap has widened by one
percentage point.
The Scottish Government’s Scottish housing market review found that the Highlands
was consistently amongst the least affordable local authority area when house
prices were compared with earnings and considered it to be an affordability hot spot.
A Scottish Government report36 analysed affordability across Scottish local
authorities. It found that under a range of scenarios using 2006 prices, Highland was
consistently amongst the least affordable authorities. They felt this was “plausibility
(be) driven by purchasers with earning capabilities detached from local labour
markets, pushing up prices and therefore increasing the affordability constraints
facing local residents”.
Across Highland only 29% of younger (under 35) households have enough income
to buy in the market. This rises to 34% when allowance is made for access to wealth
for larger deposits. However, 38% could afford to rent privately – this assumes
availability of lettings at what we estimate to be current asking rents.
As the population ages and births continue to fall, a shift in the age profile of our
population is inevitable with a 50% increase in the number of people of
retirement age by 2021 and slightly higher increase in those aged over 75.
o The current trend of reducing household sizes (a result of divorce rates and
increased life expectancy) will continue. There will be a significant increase in the
number of one person households accompanied by a reduction in the number of
3+ person households.
o This indicates that there is likely to be more demand for smaller sized housing.
o The increase in households headed by one person means that household
incomes will be lower so there may be more affordability issues.
[Extracts taken from HIGHLAND COUNCIL HOUSING NEED AND DEMAND ASSESSMENT CONSULTATION DRAFT
"These findings have been used to help identify the issues that are included in the
Highland wide Local Development Plan (HwLDP) Main Issues Report published in August 2009"]
No comments:
Post a Comment